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- Pipeline specifications: The Power of Siberia 2 would span 2,600 km and carry 50 billion cubic meters of gas annually from Russia’s Yamal fields to China via Mongolia.
- Legal progress: A legally binding memorandum to advance construction was signed in September 2025, but pricing, financing, and a delivery timeline remain unresolved.
- Pricing dispute: China seeks terms matching Russia's domestic rate (approx. $120–130 per 1,000 cubic meters), while Moscow aims for terms akin to Power of Siberia 1, potentially more than doubling that price.
- Macro backdrop: The Iran war is disrupting energy supplies, adding pressure on both countries to finalize alternative gas routes and reduce reliance on volatile Middle Eastern flows.
- Growing Russian-China energy ties: China’s Russian oil imports surged 35% year-over-year, underscoring deepening energy interdependence.
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Key Highlights
The 2,600-kilometer pipeline, which would transport 50 billion cubic meters of gas annually from Russia's Yamal fields to China via Mongolia, has faced prolonged delays despite a legally binding memorandum signed in September 2025. According to Kremlin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov, the project "will be discussed in great detail between the leaders" during the Beijing meeting.
Key sticking points remain unresolved: pricing terms, financing arrangements, and a delivery timeline. China has reportedly sought pricing for the new pipeline that matches Russia's domestic rate of around $120-130 per 1,000 cubic meters. In contrast, Moscow is pushing for terms closer to those of Power of Siberia 1, which analysts estimate would more than double that figure.
Background context from the source indicates that China has already been a major buyer of Russian energy, with its imports of Russian oil jumping 35% year over year. The timing of the talks coincides with heightened volatility in global energy markets due to the ongoing Iran conflict, which has disrupted traditional supply routes.
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Expert Insights
The revived high-level focus on Power of Siberia 2 suggests that geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East are accelerating efforts to secure long-term energy supply agreements. While the September 2025 memorandum provided a legal framework, the unresolved pricing gap may continue to delay final investment decisions. Analysts estimate that the difference between China’s offered price and Russia’s target could be substantial, potentially affecting the project's economic feasibility.
From an investment perspective, the pipeline’s progress could influence global natural gas trade flows and pricing dynamics, particularly for Asian markets. However, the absence of a clear timeline and financing terms means that near-term commercial impact remains uncertain. The outcome of the Putin-Xi talks may provide clarity, but significant hurdles persist. Market participants should monitor further announcements regarding pricing benchmarks and construction schedules.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
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